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Latest Research / Deep Dive / "Just Put in a Number": Inside the Trial Over the War's Tanker Benchmark Filings in Mercuria's London case against the Baltic Exchange show how TD3C, the world's main tanker benchmark, kept printing through months with few verifiable fixtures. A ruling due in early 2027 could reach FFAs, index-linked charters and the panel model itself. Read the analysis →Today's Brief
Trump Weighs Renewed Strikes as Qatar's Nakilat Confirms LNG Carrier Hit
President Trump spoke with Netanyahu on Saturday as Washington weighs renewed strikes on Iran, the Wall Street Journal reports, while Rubio says no decision has been made. Qatar's Nakilat confirmed its LNG carrier Al Mayeda was hit in the Gulf on Friday.
- Trump and Netanyahu spoke on Saturday as Washington weighs restarting major combat operations, the Wall Street Journal reports. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump has not decided and would prefer a diplomatic solution.
- Qatar's Nakilat confirmed its LNG carrier Al Mayeda was hit by unidentified objects in the Gulf on Friday evening. No crew were injured and the ship is operational. UKMTO has logged no new attack on a merchant ship since Friday.
- Iran designated the UK's Royal Navy and Royal Air Force as terrorist organizations on Sunday, Iran International reports. Markets were closed for the weekend; January Brent last settled at $113.43.
Active Alerts
Oman Evacuates 25 Crew From Burning Tanker Off Musandam
Oman's navy evacuated 25 crew from the Panama-flagged RITI after an attack set it on fire 1.6 nautical miles off Musandam. UKMTO logged two projectile strikes on Friday, one south of Iran's Lavan Island and one on an outbound tanker that may be the RITI.
Two Attacks on Tankers Leaving Hormuz, One by Explosives From a Small Boat
UKMTO logged two attacks on outbound tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday: a projectile strike, then a fire set by two explosive devices a small boat attached to a hull.
Fire Contained Near Ras Tanura, Houthis Claim Hit; Iran Targets Sinokor
Saudi Arabia contained a fire near its biggest oil export terminal, Ras Tanura, early Tuesday, Bloomberg reports; the Houthis claim a missile hit. Iran says it will take legal action against all Sinokor tankers from November 1.
Tanker Disabled in Hormuz, UKMTO Says; Egypt Votes Military Aid for Riyadh
UKMTO warning 182-26 reports an outbound tanker disabled by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on October 23. Egypt's parliament authorized military support for Saudi Arabia.
Scenario Tracker
Iran, Oil and the US Midterms: Five Paths
An October 13, 2026 assessment of five paths for US-Iran talks, military action and oil prices around the November 3 midterms, with a November 10 review horizon.
The Midterm Clause: Five Paths From the Channel to Nov. 3
Witkoff and Kushner sat down with Araghchi for three hours on Sep. 22, the first direct US-Iran contact of the crisis, and Trump immediately put a date on the outcome that neither Tehran nor the strait controls: right after the midterms. Five paths run to Nov. 3 on what the channel and Hormuz flow actually do before that date arrives.
Recent Briefs
Iranian Negotiators Expected in Doha as Oman Evacuates Tanker Crew
Iranian negotiators are expected in Doha on Saturday to continue talks with Qatari mediators, Axios reports. Oman evacuated 25 crew from a burning tanker off Musandam, and January Brent settled at $113.43, up 2.4%.
Two Attacks on Tankers Leaving Hormuz as Brent Rises 2% on Expiry Day
UKMTO logged a projectile strike on an outbound tanker and, hours later, a small-boat attack that set an outbound tanker's engine room on fire. December Brent rose 2.0% to $117.17 by 07:57 UTC on its last trading day.
Ship Burns Off Khasab as US Navy Says Neutral Ships May Be Searched
A vessel was reported on fire 9 nautical miles north of Khasab in the Strait of Hormuz, a day after the US Navy told ships that do not need to transit to stay well clear. Brent December eased 0.4% to $114.83 by 07:54 UTC.
US Tells Gulf States to Prepare for Iran Campaign; Brent Rebounds
Washington has told several Gulf Arab states to prepare for a short, intense campaign against Iran after the November 3 midterms, the Wall Street Journal reports. Brent December rose 1.7% to $115.81 by 07:56 UTC after Tuesday's drop.
Iran Sets Seven Conditions as Houthi Missiles Target Saudi Oil Region
Iran says Washington must meet seven conditions before talks, after meeting Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials in Tehran on Monday. Saudi Arabia says it shot down three Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at its Eastern Province, and Brent was up 0.5% at $116.41 by 07:56 UTC.
Saudi Defence Minister Goes to Tehran as Brent Eases
Saudi Arabia's defence minister leads a delegation to Tehran on Monday with Pakistan's army chief and Turkey's intelligence chief, hours after another Houthi missile was fired at Riyadh. Brent was down 1.1% at $115.39 by 07:51 UTC on hopes of de-escalation.
Deep Dives
"Just Put in a Number": Inside the Trial Over the War's Tanker Benchmark
Filings in Mercuria's London case against the Baltic Exchange show how TD3C, the world's main tanker benchmark, kept printing through months with few verifiable fixtures. A ruling due in early 2027 could reach FFAs, index-linked charters and the panel model itself.
The Shuttle Economy: Gulf Oil Is Moving, at Five Times the Freight
Gulf crude exports have climbed back toward pre-war levels through pipelines, short Hormuz shuttles and transfers off Oman, even as attacks on shipping run at a wartime high. The cost is freight above $37 a barrel and a route that rests on US escorts, one shipowner and crowded anchorages.
100M Barrels: How Much Relief, How Soon?
The G7 reserve pledge can ease fuel pressure. Its value depends on diesel volumes, delivery dates and how much overlaps March commitments.
Tier 1 Watchlist
Saudi Arabia
OCTOBER 14 / ARAMCO DHAHRAN BUILDING HIT, NO SUPPLY IMPACT REPORTED
United States
OCTOBER 13 REVIEW: US Gulf estimated oil shut-ins fell to 604,503 b/d in the October 12 survey; delivered recovery unverified. Historical body and headline statistics retain June 10 context.
Qatar
OCTOBER 8 / TANKER STRUCK INSIDE QATAR'S EEZ, CASUALTIES REPORTED / FIRST DEEP-GULF ATTACK SINCE SEPTEMBER 9
Kuwait
OCTOBER 5 / KAZIMAH III HIT OCTOBER 1, CREW REPORTED SAFE / NOVEMBER PRODUCTION TARGETS HELD
Iran
DAY 209 / FIRST DIRECT US-IRAN CONTACT OF THE CRISIS: WITKOFF AND KUSHNER MEET ARAGHCHI FOR THREE HOURS ON THE UNGA SIDELINES SEP 22 / SETTLEMENT-COLLAPSE PROBABILITY CUT 95-97% TO 84-90%, THE LARGEST SINGLE REVISION OF THE CRISIS / PEZESHKIAN'S UNGA ADDRESS DROPS HIS SEP 12 'INSURMOUNTABLE BARRIER' LANGUAGE WITHOUT NAMING THE CHANNEL / IRAN OFFERS A SEVEN-DAY REOPENING IF WASHINGTON LIFTS THE PORT BLOCKADE; THE US REDIRECTION TALLY IS RUNNING THE OTHER WAY, 109 BY SEP 20 FROM 8 IN MID-JULY